MS Excel spreadsheet of my costs. It's pretty dismal.

My friend Michelle is constantly telling me, "[color=#0000cd][i]You need to stop coming up with ideas that are just "cool" and work on ideas that will make you more money.[/i][/color]"

It's true. I really enjoy growing the event in a "fun" way, and not so concerned about profits. It's a personal issue, and I'm working on it. Considering [url="http://www.BrickFair.com"]BrickFair[/url] attracts [b]~20,000[/b] people each year, I'm taking home surprisingly little. I get these exciting new, fun, creative ideas in my head and I simply [i]must pursue[/i] them. Like this one.

My projection may be realistic, may be pessimistic. It assumes 40% sales of inventory (the first year), and hence, less investment in parts/capsules (but same income) the 2[sup]nd[/sup] year. And then the 3[sup]rd[/sup] year is a balance between the two. Pure speculation - all of it.

[i][size=2]Note: the [color=#FF0000][b]LEGO Parts Cost: $.05[/b][/color] versus [color=#008000][b]Sell For: $.50[/b][/color] is deceptive. The calculations lower in the spreadsheet assume 4 or 5 pieces per capsule. So no, I'm not selling at 10x profit.[/size][/i]

I don't mind the [color=#ff0000][b]$3,670[/b][/color] up-front setup costs. That's no biggie. Most my new ideas cost that, or more. But the [u]additional[/u] up-front cost [size=3](capsules and parts)[/size] at [color=#ff0000][b]$2,653[/b][/color] starts to hurt. [color=#ff0000][b]Six grand[/b][/color] up front, ugh. But the bottom figure, the running total of [b][color=#ff0000]-$1,529[/color][/b] [u]after 3 years[/u] - that's really disappointing. I'd rather break even in two years. And I think it might be possible. I used to vend LEGO parts online. I stopped a while back, but still have inventory left over. So the [i][color=#ff0000]Year-1 LEGO Parts[/color] cost[/i] of [color=#ff0000][b]$2,200[/b][/color] might be more like [color=#ff0000][b]$300[/b][/color], using mostly my leftovers. That alone will bring me to just about even in year #2.

So much guesswork - sigh. So many questions:[list=1]
[*]Will I sell far less than 40%? Or will they clean me out? Just how popular will this be? Total gamble, really.
[*]There's another smaller [url="http://www.BrickFair.com"]BrickFair[/url] in Alabama in January. So really, between now and August 2013, we will have seen 3 conventions. That's 3 events in just about 18 months. Better odds of breaking even.
[*]I may have found an affordable supply of minifig. If this comes to fruition, [i]all the pessimism evaporates[/i]. Minifigs would sell for $.75 each individual piece (5 pieces per fig) = [color=#008000][b]$3.75[/b][/color] per fig. Those puppies [u]would sell like mad[/u] - nearly guaranteeing profit - not just breaking even - by August 2013.
[*]Do I pack all "themed" parts together? So kids could approach a machine full of "bricks and slopes," and another machine of "plants and animals," etc? Or just mix them all up randomly?
[*]Do I include chaser prizes? Or make them all relatively value-equal? This is a tough one. Since we're specifically a LEGO show, [i]everyone knows the value[/i] of our product. I can't overstate this. If someone pays $.50 for a prize they value at 10 cents, it could upset kids, embarrass me and the event, and hurt sales. These machines will be far from anonymous. They are a direct and immediate reflection of our event, right there, right then.
[/list]
Admittedly, my [i]Road Case[/i] expense of [color=#ff0000][b]$600[/b][/color] per box is a big factor. I've debated them, but ultimately believe them to be important. They serve many purposes, not the least of which is making the vend units appear [u]special[/u]. Unlike a typical, plain [size=3](or even ugly)[/size] rack, these will look like pedestals, boasting of the product atop them. At least that's how I see it.

After much personal debate, I'm not sure any financial forecast could stop me from at least trying this idea.