Typical or Alien-Seasonal Influence

[Finaritwo1]

I took over a small route, 3 locations , 6 snack & 5 soda machines in total  back in September 2017. I was able to tag along and see weekly sales and clean outs over a three week period. Using a few of the guides on route values/sales I learned here I took the plunge and during my first few months sales continued to maintain the average I was getting used to them. To put it lightly theres been a big dropoff (especially the soda machines) from the week before Thanksgiving to the present. The seasons, Holidays(Haloween,Thanksgiving,Christmas,New Years,School break-Vacations etc....), Weather & Taxes were explained to me and to expect a slow down during the winter months( I live in Massachusetts) but in all honesty I'm amazed how sales have dropped off. No customer complaints , even better service, compliments as a matter of fact, yet I feel like getting back to August/Septembers sales will never happen. I'm new and theres no experience to fall back on except the seller of the locations keeps reassuring me it happens, especially with an eventful (stormy) winter. My question is how much , on average, do other route owners see their sales drop during the winter months(especially in the New England area) ?  I'm trying to convince myself there's a larger influence due to the strong four seasons here besides the crutch of interrupting holidays which reflect in sales between the Fall/Winter verse Spring/Summer. I'm starting to over think things, getting anxious to say the least, and even switching products. I realize I need to give it time and service through my first Spring/Summer months, but fear of failure so early becomes traumatizing...

[AngryChris]

I can't speak for NE area, but I live in Ohio and the soda sales drop off maybe 40% or so while snack sales go up maybe 30%.  This is just a wild guess as I have never done the actual math, but it is a known thing in the vending world.  It does begin after Thanksgiving due to vacations and other seasonal-related causes (people bringing in food to work, work parties, etc...) and it gets quite significant after chrismas and maybe until the 3rd week of January (I take the week between Christmas and New Years off).  Once we get past the 3rd week of January, the sales "normalize" for winter sales.. and by normalize, I am referring to that estimate of a 40% drop in soda sales and 30% increase in snack sales.  The nature of the locations have a huge impact on sales as well.  Schools often drop off after Thanksgiving pretty significantly except for weeks with heavy testing (only faculty-related vending).  They don't pick back up until maybe February and they can be pretty volatile until maybe March'ish.  Everything normalizes back to Summer sales approximately around Memorial day or even June/July depending on whether and the nature of your accounts.  Only having 3 accounts, the nature of your accounts mean that your figures could be way off from what I just said.

[Finaritwo1]

My soda sales have dropped off pretty much the same, 30-40% but what has me worried is you mention your snack sales actually going up 30%. If my snack sales had gone up 30% I'd be much more amazed in a different way. My sales have dropped across the board, snacks maybe a little less, but still down 25-35% since mid November. I've seen a slight increase but 40% is a long climb back when being scrutinized...Aside from learning as I go, especially the fundamentals of inventory management and avoiding throw aways due to expirations dates, I'm remaining hopeful...

[AngryChris]

Dealing with expired product is something most of us deal with.  It's the nature of the business as sales drop off suddenly and it's a matter of experience to get ahead of the game.  Another huge factor is that you don't have many accounts.  Once you have a lot of machines (well over 60) that produce decently (say $50/week on average) then things become both harder and easier.  It gets harder simply because of the amount of machines to manage, but easier because you tend to know what you're doing and you have enough machines where you know you can sell certain product faster if you rotate it properly.  It's a management issue at that level, but you don't have the problem of throwing things away simply because you can't sell enough of what you buy like you do when you start small. 

What kind of accounts are they?

[Finaritwo1]

I'm learning quickly and getting better handling the expired products but I'm still learning to deal with the drop off in sales. My accounts consist of one physical rehab facility (approx 40 employees-30 residents at any given time I believe),  a state run office building (approx 150 office employees), a manufacturing/office complex( approx 250 employees combined)... My gut tells me potential is here, I just have to figure where their appetites went after Thanksgiving... I wanted to run these accounts/machines   for 6-12 months getting experience under my feet before I went out and tried to aquire more locations. I'm not afraid of the answer "Not Interested" and I'll try to add 10-15 more machines by my second years anniversery. The more machines obviously will be harder but the added income will help support the route as a whole...I admire the fact that your snacks go up during the fall/winter seasons, why do you think that is...

[Corvus Corax]

It can depend on the business. My used car and tire places turn to garbage in the winter.  My hotels sometimes go up in bad weather, since people don't want to drive in it.  There are also aliens... I had a woman today tell me I had to put the Pepsi back in the dark blue cans, because the soda in the new white cans tastes bad.

[AngryChris]

2 hours ago, Corvus Corax said:

... I had a woman today tell me I had to put the Pepsi back in the dark blue cans, because the soda in the new white cans tastes bad.

Haha

[Southeast Treats]

I can tell you that in Florida we get the same type of sales drop in November/ December, and part of January.  I climb back faster in the new year mostly due to a few hotel/resort accounts that benefit from special events in my area pulling in visitors this time of year, escaping from your cold weather.  My office and industrial accounts will stay slow until we get a little warmer.  One thing to look at is which items seem to be doing better for you right now and maximize that.  Cool weather seems to be the best time of year for pastry sales for example, something people will buy to enjoy with a cup of coffee.   Pastries will have a shorter shelf life so be aware. 

[Finaritwo1]

It sounds like my most of us are going through the same slow period. What I have learned is that when its steady the numbers are consistent and vice versa.. The weather hasn't been in my favor this winter to top it off. Two more weeks of below average cold expected and we're expecting another northeaster tomorrow , 8"-10" of more snow expected to fall just making it even more fun getting in & out of the buildings  while I'm chasing a runaway Magliner...I also have customers who seem to have way too much time on their breaks. A woman last week counted the Cheetos from her bag and said it was half filled, she almost kissed me when I gave her another one on the house..

[AngryChris]

A lot of customers have nothing better to do.

[Finaritwo1]

I understand its hard to discuss information on sales and such, but in general what would be considered fair monthly sales from a snack machine?  Again , I realize there are several factors, such as location, customers profiles etc...,, but if the average monthly sales for a snack machine was $500-$600 how would you rate it? 

[Snack Man 2000]

On 3/20/2018 at 8:46 AM, Corvus Corax said:

It can depend on the business. My used car and tire places turn to garbage in the winter.  My hotels sometimes go up in bad weather, since people don't want to drive in it.  There are also aliens... I had a woman today tell me I had to put the Pepsi back in the dark blue cans, because the soda in the new white cans tastes bad.

I had a woman tell me the new Mountain dew cans didn't tast like the old ones at all, and she was going to start drinking something different. She eventually decided to stick with dew. There's some strange ones out there.

[AZVendor]

2 hours ago, Finaritwo1 said:

I understand its hard to discuss information on sales and such, but in general what would be considered fair monthly sales from a snack machine?  Again , I realize there are several factors, such as location, customers profiles etc...,, but if the average monthly sales for a snack machine was $500-$600 how would you rate it? 

Rated as Excellent.

[Finaritwo1]

I thought so...I wish they all could be that way..Thank You "AZVendor" ...

[57thTom]

5 hours ago, Finaritwo1 said:

I realize there are several factors, such as location, customers profiles etc...,, but if the average monthly sales for a snack machine was $500-$600 how would you rate it? 

You forgot cost of goods and cost to service. 

[Finaritwo1]

I was quoting average gross sales , being new to the business and with so many variables to take into account such as COG & CTS & more, I was asking in general if gross sales such as these seemed ok.. I enjoy this work and have started with10 machines and they're keeping me busy 1-1/2 days a week. I'm happy with this for now until I gain more confidence/experience  & hope to add more...

[57thTom]

Yes, I understand. 

The company I work for has stayed there for many years. My supervisor and I took over the two soda machines and two snacks almost two years ago and started right off stopping the problem of shortage caused by stealing. Then we started arguing with management about pricing. 

They were selling turtles that they paid $0.96 priced at $1.00. Management wouldn't allow an increase in price. My supervisor quit ordering turtles.

This is a great location. One V511  sold more than 1000 twelve ounce cans (priced at $1) during the January of 2017. But I'm still not sure they actually make money because of bad pricing and too high cost to service.

Even with that kind of sales the struggle with stales in the snack machines is brutal. It is only a matter of pride for me, since it will make me no money, but by paying attention I have made it through more than a year without pulling any stales from just two snack machines.

[Finaritwo1]

Quote

On 3/27/2018 at 5:00 AM, 57thTom said:

Even with that kind of sales the struggle with stales in the snack machines is brutal. It is only a matter of pride for me, since it will make me no money, but by paying attention I have made it through more than a year without pulling any stales from just two snack machines.

Stales have been my biggest learning curve. 

 

[Corvus Corax]

Stales, cookies keep longer than pastries. On slow movers, I usually only have honey buns, and use linden, famous Amos, oreo, and nutter butter, for the rest.