Arctic summers ice-free by...

[The Mage]

Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

Article from December 2007

 

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

 

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

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Not the complete article, but enough.

 

Sorry for bringing up climate change again, but I found this old article of doom and gloom funny.  One prediction that hasn't come true, but unfortunately these predictions are forgotten, and yet they are still using the same Y2K type of hysteria, and if you challenge anything on the subject, you are first called a denier, then possibly shown a link to something just as bad as the above article.  They warn of impending doom, such as the 3.3 mm rise in sea levels per year, which accounts for about a 1.3 inch rise in a decade.  It's like running from a toothless, quadriplegic zombie. 

 

That estimate is based on such a short time frame, a longer time frame that is more statistically significant shows about half the rise.  (1.7 mm/year)  You have to be careful what data you use to extrapolate from.  Looking at the growth of music CD's from 1985 to 2000, we can extrapolate that trillions will be sold by 2100.

 

Contrary to the above article, the arctic ice sheet has grown 29% since last year, and the antarctic ice sheet just hit the second highest recorded size.

 

But the science actually does support that the Earth is warming over the long term, and it also says that we have had a hand in it.  But it doesn't say we are the major cause, nor does it actually say it is a bad thing, or even if it's in our interests to stop it.

 

The nature of CO2 warming is known, and it absorb very specific slice of the spectrum.  That means that the more CO2 that enters the atmosphere, the less heat there is for it to absorb.  Kind of like sticking sponges into a bucket of water.  The first one will get soaked, but by the time you have stuck in the 100th one, they are barely getting wet.

 

Somehow socialism is the cure for climate change.  If you tax people, the problem will go away.  If a country that produces a lot of carbon gives money to one that doesn't, called a carbon credit, even though you are still producing the same amount of carbon, accounting as fixed the problem.  This is called the Enron accounting method of dealing with climate change.

[snack dude]

When ever I see a story like this I always think back to the mid 70s when Time Magazine put on the cover a headline warning of the coming ice age. The big article was about how scientist were predicting that we were entering a new ice age the earth was cooling and the winters of 77 and 78 were some of the coldest ever recorded. So in just 37 years we went thru an ice age and are warming back up?

Lets face it this is all about money.

You employ a someone to study global warming and you give them the amount of money they ask for to study it.

Now do you really think they are done studying it or do you think they might come back to you and say

" Oh MY GOD THIS IS HORRIBLE, DOGS ARE GOING TO BE LIVING WITH CATS AND ALL THE CRACK HEADS WHO ARE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS IN WASHINGTON D.C. ARE GOING TO BE UNDER WATER IN FOUR YEARS AND THEY WILL HOLD THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION ACCOUNABLE AND WE NEED A TON MORE MONEY TO STUDY IT

(and I have a payment due on my beachfront property in chesapeake bay)

 

Follow the money folks 

[The Mage]

There actually is a relevance to these two stories.

 

There is something called the pacific decadal oscillation. (PDO)

 

It's like a longer form of El nino and La nina, except instead of lasing months to a little over a year, it is about a 20 to 30 year cycle.  It was on a warming trend at the beginning of the 20th century, then was on a cooling trend till around 1970, when the scientists mistook it for a potential ice age.  Then we had the warming trend that lasted to about the end of the century that convinced people we were experiencing global warming.

 

We are now in the cooling cycle of the PDO, and that is expected to continue until 2020 to 2030.

 

It is so annoying attempting to search for information on this subject.  There is so much bias and political meandering on this subject that getting to the facts can be hard to find the real facts on the subject.

 

Your comment about following the money is quite accurate.  I have watched one video of a scientist pointing out that if the climate scientists said things were fine, their research money would dry up, so they have a vested interest in all the fear and drama.  This is not unbiased research.

 

Then again, generally only people who believe in climate change really go to college to enter that field, so obviously it is already a biased field.  Similar to how people that don't believe the Government is the solution to their problems usually don't go into politics..  

[Action Vending]

Follow the money with just about all the insane things we hear and you will understand it better.